Opinion of Gan Pampols : An opportunity sale
A window of opportunity is the possibility that arises at a given moment to resolve a complex situation that is stuck and has no prospect of a solution. Normally, there is a new factor that appears or a situation that is modified, thus giving way to new ways of negotiation that can end up leading to agreements, even if they are minimal.
There is something of that in a confluence of different events that are taking place in the last days, as for example the visit of the president of Brazil, Lula da Silva, to Beijing and his proposal to create a group of countries promoting a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, or the growing tensions that are taking place within some Central European countries because their farmers are protesting against the massive imports of Ukrainian wheat at such competitive prices that are leading them to unsustainable situations. Also, and in the opposite direction, the increasing threats from the United States to Hungary because of its relations with the Russian federation ron gas imports and other exchanges. And I will leave for the end the various and sometimes angry reactions to President Macron’s statements upon his return from China regarding the necessary strategic autonomy of Europe with respect to the decisions of the United States, while clarifying that alliance does not mean vassalage or followership.
In the light of the above, where is this window of opportunity? In the first place, in the foresight that there is not going to be in the short-medium term any resolute action on the battlefield. that would bring about a radical change in the positions of one or the other. Secondly, despite the strong support of European countries for Ukraine and the unanimous condemnation of Russia, the war is dragging onThe costs of all kinds are growing, and the reconstruction of Ukraine is becoming excessive. Thirdly, the European public’s perception of the impact of the conflict on their quality of life – and in some cases on their livelihoods – is cooling the resolve for sine die support and are beginning to prefer an agreement even if it is imperfect.
Exhaustion of the contenders, increasing destruction, direct and indirect costs, and the future of geopolitical relations in the global arena pose a very powerful combined
Depletion of contenders, increasing destruction, direct and indirect costs, and the future of geopolitical relations in the global arena pose a very powerful combined a very powerful combination that may lead to the need to bring positions closer together. and to lower the expectations of one or the other about a total victory in which nobody privately believes.
This would be achieved by encouraging the desires to stop the conflict in the first instance and, subsequently, to seek a negotiated exit. that would strengthen Ukraine’s security (solid international guarantees of assistance and security) and curb the expansionist desires of the Russian Federation, while providing it with the incentive of a future of shared prosperity. It is now a matter of enhancing the conditions for such an outcome to be possible, feasible and desirable for all.