Opinion of Gan Pampols | From Spring to Fall

We are in the 454th day since the Ukrainian war started.. From the particular to the general, it seems that, finally, the entire perimeter of the city of Bakhmut has fallen into the hands of the Russian army and the city has been conquered. However, on the southern and northern flanks of that perimeter local counterattacks of the Ukrainian army are registered with limited success so that the situation is far from being under control and we are still mired in the fog of war. seasoned, in this case, with much information warfare.

There is also a succession of actions in depth, on the Russian side, with ballistic missile, cruise missile and drone attacks on what is reported as military infrastructures, logistic depots and command and control centers. On the Ukrainian side more of the same, with the exception of sabotage actions on railway and power lines (electricity, gas and oil) both in the rear of the occupied areas and on Russian sovereign territory.

Further afield, an alliance of countries led by the United Kingdom has been formed which advocates the delivery of fourth-generation aircraft to Ukraine by committing itself to the training of pilots, maintenance technicians and ground personnel who will carry out mission control of these aircraft. The United States, the manufacturer of the F-16s, is also in favor of the delivery of the F-16s to Ukraine. has agreed for the first time to train pilots on this type of aircraft. and their transfer to Ukraine from the donor countries Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium. The time to use these aircraft in combat over Ukraine is in any case not less than four months for pilot training, infrastructure adaptation (length of runways, bomb shelters for the aircraft and staggered maintenance), delivery of the aircraft and their armament, and finally, practice in coordinating the airspace with its air defense (avoiding friendly fire). This is the way, we are heading towards autumn rather than summer.

Opening the spotlight we see an unusual activity of President Zelenski who in the same week has appeared at the summit of Arab League countries in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) and at the G7 summit in Hiroshima (Japan) meeting between them with 40 leaders of different states. In the first case seeking the condemnation of those countries that are reluctant to speak out in favor of Ukraine and against the invasion, and in the second for To get more economic involvement, more sanctions and more military hardware. sophisticated “to get closer to achieving peace” in his own words.

Finally, a reflection on the meaning of achieving peace. There is the peace “manu militari” which is the total defeat of the adversary and his unconditional surrender. There is the agreed peace in which both contenders reach an entente with a view to future consolidation and the progressive elimination of grievances and differences, and finally, there is the imposed peace in which there is a third party with sufficient power to force both contenders to sit down and agree on a solution to their differences, being the future guarantor of its application. I believe that the third way is the only one possible at this time and with two actors in mutual agreement to apply it with opportunity.